The Confidence Trap: A History of Democracy in Crisis from World War I to the Present by David Runciman

The Confidence Trap: A History of Democracy in Crisis from World War I to the Present by David Runciman is a compelling and thought-provoking analysis of how democracies repeatedly stumble into crises—and then climb out again—often lulled by their own resilience. Runciman spans the 20th and early 21st centuries, examining pivotal moments such as World War I, the Great Depression, Cold War flashpoints, and the 2008 financial collapse to trace a persistent pattern: democratic societies tend to recover from calamities, but that very survival breeds complacency and postponement, trapping them in a cycle of overconfidence and reaction rather than anticipation.

Drawing on insights from political thinkers like Tocqueville, Lippmann, Kennan, Fukuyama, and Hayek, Runciman illustrates how democracies’ greatest strength—their ability to muddle through—can also blind them to impending threats. He illuminates the paradox that democracies are excellent at bouncing back but often fail to prevent crises from emerging in the first place. With clarity and a provocative tone, he makes the case that this “confidence trap” may render future crises unstoppable unless democracies learn to recognize patterns of denial and act early rather than late. The book is both an intellectual history and a cautionary call to leaders, scholars, and engaged citizens to confront the illusions of democratic infallibility.